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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xml:lang="en">
  <front xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Technoeconomics</journal-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
          <trans-title>Technoeconomics</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">2949-1290</issn>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">7</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.57809/2025.4.2.13.7</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Investigation of platinum price seasonality using high-order autoregression</article-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
          <trans-title>Исследование сезонности цены платины с помощью авторегрессии большого порядка</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Klimentov</surname>
            <given-names>Andrei</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff id="aff1">Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University</aff>
      <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-06-30">
        <day>30</day>
        <month>06</month>
        <year>2025</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>4</volume>
      <issue>2</issue>
      <issue-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">13</issue-id>
      <fpage>70</fpage>
      <lpage>79</lpage>
      <self-uri xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" content-type="pdf" xlink:href="https://technoeconomics.spbstu.ru/userfiles/files/Issues/13/7-Klimentov.pdf"/>
      <abstract xml:lang="en">
        <p>This research investigates platinum price seasonality using high-order autoregressive modeling. The research object is daily platinum price dynamics (LME data, 2015–2024), focusing on long-term dependencies and cyclical patterns. The method employs stepwise decomposition of a 270-day lag autoregression AR(270) into computationally efficient 15-day lag sub-models, enabling significance testing of all coefficients while minimizing resource demands. Results identify the one-day lag as the dominant predictor, with marginal effects at 6–15-day lags and MAPE (1.15%) confirm model robustness. Conclusions indicate no statistically significant weekly cycles due to the overwhelming influence of short-term lags, though the method’s applicability in low-resource environments (e.g., Microsoft Excel) facilitates accessible highorder autoregression.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
        <kwd>platinum price forecasting</kwd>
        <kwd>high-order autoregression</kwd>
        <kwd>seasonal cycles</kwd>
        <kwd>stepwise decomposition</kwd>
        <kwd>computational efficiency</kwd>
        <kwd>lagged coefficients</kwd>
        <kwd>time series analysis</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
